PRISM INTELLIGENCE ARCHIVE

PRISM = EdgeCal's research system

Where PRISM saw it differently.

Every scored forecast across event contract markets — what the market priced, what PRISM estimated, and what actually happened. Each analysis is Brier-scored and published in the public ledger.

All55 Kalshi26 Polymarket29

SCORED

55

HIT RATE

65%

PRISM

0.183

MARKET

0.190

FULL SCOREBOARD →

FEATURED ANALYSIS

🌍GeopoliticsMACRODIPLOMATIC EVENT

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Market priced 84% certainty the ceasefire would hold. Prism’s 76% reflected the fragility of bilateral talks. Six days later the framework collapsed — +545% return on the gap.

📈FinanceMACRO

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >110.99 on Apr 8, 2026?

Oil at $107 with two days to settle. Market priced 78% it would close above $111. Prism’s 68% read the supply pipeline — barrels stayed flat. +355% on the discipline.

🏛PoliticsMACRO

Will the President's approval rating be below 40.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Prism saw that RCP approval was already above the threshold — market was pricing fear, not data.

🌍GeopoliticsMACRO

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?

Market priced 42% probability of an Israeli strike on Yemen by April 15. Prism’s 1% reflected the total absence of operational signals. Two weeks confirmed no strike.

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ALL RESOLVED INTELLIGENCE(49)

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >103.99 on Apr 17, 2026?

Mid-April oil at $99. Market priced 53% on a $104 close. Prism’s 43% tracked supply fundamentals correctly — settlement landed below threshold. +115% return.

Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?

Prism called this narrow band unlikely. The market agreed at 21.5%. Reality landed inside — a precision miss.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

When Prism gets it wrong: a ceasefire nobody expected, and what the miss teaches about geopolitical modeling.

DIPLOMATIC EVENT

Ethereum price at Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Ethereum already trading 6% above the threshold with 24 hours to settle. Market priced 54%, Prism saw 73%. Already-there pattern captured cleanly.

Ethereum price at Apr 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Kalshi ETH at 65%. Prism said 89%. Short resolution + already above threshold = free edge.

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

When historical dominance creates false certainty. T1 was unbeatable — until they weren't.

Will above 30000 jobs be added in April 2026?

Market priced at 71%. PRISM saw 75% — a 3.6pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will Uber Technologies, Inc. report above 3.7 billion Trips in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 50%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 21%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?

PRISM estimated 43% vs market's 51%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Market priced at 63%. PRISM saw 72% — a 8.9pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 31%. Model: 16%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 38%. Model: 28%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 40%. Model: 30%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 41%. Model: 31%. The correction came through.

GEOPOLITICAL EVENT

Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

PRISM estimated 52% vs market's 62%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM estimated 34% vs market's 24%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

ELECTION RESULT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

PRISM estimated 36% vs market's 30%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM estimated 26% vs market's 18%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

ELECTION RESULT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 44%. Model: 37%. The correction came through.

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be <106.00 on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 78%. PRISM saw 85% — a 7.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in March 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model: 23%. The correction came through.

BLS CPI RELEASE

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

PRISM estimated 70% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

PRISM estimated 33% vs market's 66%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 22%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 23%. Model: 5%. The correction came through.

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM estimated 36% vs market's 70%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

ELECTION RESULT

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model: 1%. The correction came through.

🌍GeopoliticsM

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

PRISM estimated 1% vs market's 33%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026?

PRISM estimated 26% vs market's 34%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Top US Netflix Show on Apr 13, 2026?

PRISM estimated 76% vs market's 85%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 78%. PRISM saw 92% — a 14.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 84% — a 18.1pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 69%. PRISM saw 88% — a 19.6pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 17%. Model: 6%. The correction came through.

SOL price on Apr 10, 2026?

Market priced at 54%. PRISM saw 73% — a 18.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 7, 2026?

Market priced at 77%. PRISM saw 91% — a 14.4pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

PRISM estimated 6% vs market's 23%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Ethereum price at Apr 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 68%. PRISM saw 92% — a 24.0pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market priced at 81%. PRISM saw 96% — a 15.8pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026?

Market priced at 66%. PRISM saw 85% — a 19.7pp gap. Outcome confirmed.

Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

PRISM estimated 18% vs market's 75%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 42%. Model: 9%. The correction came through.

Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 33%. Model: 17%. The correction came through.

CRYPTO WEEKLY CLOSE

Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 31?

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 30%. Model: 13%. The correction came through.

CRYPTO WEEKLY CLOSE

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

PRISM estimated 51% vs market's 59%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

PRISM estimated 55% vs market's 65%. Market was right — a calibration data point.

These are resolved calls

See the live forecasts.

Live PRISM analysis across event contract markets — edge scores, probability estimates, and confidence levels updated in real time.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.