ACCURACY SCOREBOARD

Every forecast is logged, resolved, and scored against the market baseline.

No cherry-picking. Losses included. Fully explorable by contract.

Kalshi97All Platforms176

Viewing: Kalshi-first performance. All-platform results remain available for full transparency.

Macro Calibration Board · Live

The PRISM (blind) calibration board for macro releases (GDP, CPI, payrolls, ADP, PPI YoY) is now live. See PRISM’s Brier Skill Score, reliability curve, Priority 5 tracker, resolved case studies, and per-category breakdown.

OPEN MACRO BOARD →
Forecasts
97
Resolved
95
Hit Rate
47.4%
Brier Score
0.215
Below avg

LOWER BRIER IS BETTER — IT MEASURES CALIBRATED ACCURACY

PRISM vs Kalshi Market
EDGECAL PRISM
0.215
VS
MARKET BASELINE
0.212
PRISM
0.215
Mkt
0.212
The Kalshi baseline currently shows lower forecast error than EdgeCal by 3.1 Brier points (95 resolved)
Log Loss (penalizes overconfidence)
PRISM
0.657
Mkt
0.613
Log loss gap: -4.4%
Lower is better. Brier: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip. Log loss: 0 = perfect, 0.693 = random.
Calibration Curve
Forecast probability vs actual outcome frequency
--- Perfect--- EdgeCal

WHERE EDGECAL HAS EDGE

Where EdgeCal claims structural edge, where it publishes broader coverage, and what gets hard-blocked.

Focus Categories
Politics · Geopolitics · Macro · Congressional · Event Crypto · Culture
Brier
0.211
Below avg · vs market 0.188
Resolved
24
29.2% wins
By Category
Politics
0.166·12
Culture
0.278·7
Macro
0.222·5
Broader Coverage
Weather · Tech · Financials · Mentions · eSports · Weekly+ Crypto
Brier
0.228
Below avg · vs market 0.226
Resolved
63
49.2% wins
By Category
Financials
0.263·49
Monthly Crypto
0.115·8
Tech
0.090·6
Tier 3 — Permanently Excluded
8 legacy resolved predictions in intraday crypto brackets, sports spreads, or short-dated microstructure markets. These categories are now hard-blocked by PRISM’s pre-screener. We don’t publish analysis where LLM ensembles have no structural edge.
Cumulative P&L (if followed)
--- Strong only--- All forecasts
All: +672.0%
Strong: +655.9%
You just saw the aggregate

Now see the case studies.

Every resolved forecast — wins, losses, and what PRISM saw differently. Explorable by contract.

SEE CASE STUDIES →GET ACCESS
PRISM beta is live

The independent calibration layer for event contract markets.

The Macro Calibration Board and blind-window ledger are live. Join the list for paid access as PRISM builds more resolved forecast history.