Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

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Forecast Tape

2 events

May 22, 6:06 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 26% vs market 19% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 27, 3:53 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

19.0%

The market was pricing this event at 19.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

26.2%

EDGE DETECTED

7.2pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Probability estimate: 22% for a sub-$92M 4-day domestic opening
▸Tracking and forecasts cluster just under $92M, but holiday volatility and franchise upside limit conviction

FACTORS FOR

+Studio and trade tracking around an $80M 4-day opening
+Independent forecast range begins below $92M at $86M

FACTORS AGAINST

−Forecast range extends to $109M, well above $92M
−Strong presales comparable to major tentpoles support upside risk

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Opening lands near tracking around $80M 4-day14%

Film overperforms tracking yet still under $92M8%

Evidence 47%

SOURCES (3)

last week

The Mandalorian And Grogu Worldwide Box Office Opening ...comicbookmovie.com
Ticket presales for The Mandalorian and Grogu currently sit at $25 million in North America, which is ahead of Project Hail Mary at the same point in time and ...
May 20Open →
THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU Targets $86-104M+ 4-Day Holiday ...boxofficetheory.com
Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $86 — 109 million 4-day. Studio Tracking: $80 million 4-day · Passenger BOT ...
May 21Open →
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (2026) Budget - Saturation.iosaturation.io
Analyst tracking in the weeks before release pointed to a domestic opening weekend in the $120 to $150 million range, which would place it among the stronger ...
May 21Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 7.2% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.069

MARKET ACCURACY

0.036

EDGE

-32.6

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?, classifying it as underpriced at 19.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 26.2% vs market 19.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.147-esports-fallback-seal·Forecasted: May 22, 2026·Resolved: May 27, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.