What happened
This market resolved YES on May 29, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 23, 6:06 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 78% vs market 85% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 29, 11:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 85.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates natural gas is currently trading materially above the 2.899 threshold with an upward trend
- ▸With limited time to expiry, moderate mean reversion risk slightly tempers an otherwise high probability of staying above
- +Verified Henry Hub price is notably above the 2.899 threshold.
- +Recent multi-day trend is upward, suggesting supportive fundamentals.
- +Short time window to event limits scope for large reversal.
- +No reported major bearish supply or demand shocks.
- −Natural gas prices are historically volatile over short horizons.
- −Contract-specific dynamics can diverge from headline Henry Hub cash index.
- −Potential for profit-taking or weather-driven demand shifts pre-date.
- −Lack of contract-level curve and positioning data.
- Natural Gas Price Analysis | 25 - 29 MAY 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com
naturalgas #naturalgasanalysis Natural Gas price analysis for 25 - 29 May 2026 || Natural gas Analysis || 2026 || natural Gas Outlook || Is this The Best ...
May 22Open → - Natural gas price on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - Kalshikalshi.com
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDN6 contract on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.999 USD/MMBtu, then the market ...
May 22Open → - Massachusetts Natural Gas Rate Explained for Businessesspragueenergy.com
Discover why Massachusetts natural gas rates are increasing and learn how your business can control energy expenses.
May 19Open → - Natural gas Price analysis | 25 May 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com
Natural Gas Price Analysis | 25 May 2026 | Natural Gas Forecast | Natural Gas News Today #xng #xngusd #xngusdlive #naturalgas #natgas #hnu #hnd ...
May 22Open → - Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast, Technical Analysis (May 25 - 29)youtube.com
Natural gas has had a tough week again, as we continue to trade in one of the weakest times of year. Until we see hotter temperatures return to the United ...
May 22Open → - LNG netback price series - ACCCaccc.gov.au
The ACCC publishes the LNG netback price series to improve transparency of gas prices in the east coast gas market.
May 18Open → - Trade US Natural Gas Spot CFD - Capital.comcapital.com
Get the latest US Natural Gas Spot prices in realtime including live charts, historical data, news and analysis. Follow live Natural Gas price and trace the ...
May 20Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: Henry Hub Natural Gas Latest Value: $3.07 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$0.18 (+6.23%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $2.91 2026-05-13: $2.88 2026-05-14: $2.79 2026-05-15: $2.89 2026-05-18: $3.07 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $2.90 $/MMBtu Current value: $3.07 Distance to target: $0.17 ABOVE target (5.9% above) Direction required: Value must stay above or rise
May 23Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 7.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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