1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 3, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 2, 6:03 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 18% vs market 65% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 3, 3:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +182% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
64.5%
The market was pricing this event at 64.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
17.8%
EDGE DETECTED
20.6pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
66.3%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Current RCP approval at 41.1% sits just 0.3 points above the 40.8% threshold
- ▸Silver Bulletin methodology typically shows lower approval than RCP baseline
FACTORS FOR
- +Extremely narrow 0.3pt margin above threshold
- +Silver Bulletin shows net -16.7 approval
- +Polymarket traders favor sub-40.8% heavily
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Only 2 days until resolution limits volatility
- −RCP baseline currently above threshold
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 46.7% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.032
MARKET ACCURACY
0.416
EDGE
+384.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the President's approval rating be below 40.8 according to RealClearPolitics?, classifying it as overpriced at 64.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 17.8% vs market 64.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 2, 2026·Resolved: April 3, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.