What happened
This market resolved YES on June 2, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 29, 5:53 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 43% vs market 34% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- Jun 2, 4:30 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +194% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 34.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 37%
- ▸WTI spot at $97.63 gives a cushion above 88.99, but recent futures softness and short horizon still allow a pullback below the strike
- +Spot at $97.63 is $8.64 above threshold
- +Only ~9.7% decline needed over three days to hold line
- −Front‑month futures recently trading below 88.99 show weakness
- −Short‑term oil prices often move >5–10% on catalysts
- Crude Oil Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Stay up to date with the probabilities of certain outcomes of the next OPEC meeting using NYMEX WTI Crude Oil option prices. Interactive Expiration Calendar.
May 28Open → - Crude Oil West Texas (Jul 2026) Trade Ideas - TradingViewtradingview.com
Iran's military then warned of a powerful strike on predetermined targets in response to repeated threats from the administration. API inventories released at ...
May 29Open → - Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) - EIAeia.gov
... avoid disclosure of individual company data. Release Date: 5/20/2026. Next Release Date: 5/28/2026. Referring Pages: Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum ...
May 28Open → - ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) resolution contextice.com
Source: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) Resolution field: Front-month settle price for WTI crude oil, verified from ICE (NOT NYMEX/CME) Frequency: weekly Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/WTIOIL.pdf Known rule risks: CRITICAL: Kalshi uses ICE settlement, NOT NYMEX/CME — traders often check wrong exchange; ICE settlement price ≠ last trade ≠ CME close — can differ by $0.10-0.50; "Front-month" — which contract month? Rollover creates discontinuity
May 29Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Latest Value: $97.63 (as of 2026-05-26) — VERIFIED Change from previous: $2.72 (-2.71%) Trend (last 5 observations): FALLING 2026-05-19: $112.09 2026-05-20: $101.69 2026-05-21: $100.20 2026-05-22: $100.35 2026-05-26: $97.63 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $88.99 $/barrel Current value: $97.63 Distance to target: $8.64 ABOVE target (9.7% above) Direction required: Value must stay above or rise to
May 29Open → - EIA verified energy dataeia.gov
## VERIFIED EIA ENERGY DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — the OFFICIAL government source. This is the SAME data Kalshi uses to settle energy markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with other sources. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Latest Value: $97.63 (as of 2026-05-26) — VERIFIED, OFFICIAL Latest change: DOWN $2.72 (-2.71%) Trend (last 5 observations): FALLING 2026-05-19: $112.09 2026-05-20: $101.69 2026-05-21: $100.20 2026-05-22: $100.35 2026-05-26: $97.63 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target threshold: $88.99 $/barrel Current EIA
May 29Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 9.4% mispricing
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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