🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/May 26, 2026
polymarket market
Diplomatic event

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

PRISM
43.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
53.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+47pp

PRISM detected 3.6pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 44% against the market's 54%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 6, 2026 at 10:06 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+3.6ppPRISM 44% · Market 54%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
43.5%
VS
MARKET
53.5%
EDGE DETECTED3.6pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-47
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 18, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

8 events
  1. May 6, 5:16 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 29% — edge +10.0pp

  2. May 6, 10:06 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 44%

  3. May 6, 5:21 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 40%

  4. May 17, 4:06 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 19%

  5. May 19, 8:05 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 25%

  6. May 20, 12:09 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 28%

  7. May 20, 8:07 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 34%

  8. Jun 18, 12:33 AMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
53.5%

The market was pricing this event at 53.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
43.5%
EDGE DETECTED
3.6pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Fundamental analysis indicates no verified diplomatic progress toward a formal, permanent peace deal with only days remaining
  • ▸The market's 55.5% probability appears optimistic given the high bar for a definitive bilateral agreement
FACTORS FOR
  • +Market pricing reflects significant optimism for a breakthrough
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No verified official deal or scheduled signing as of May 26
  • −High diplomatic threshold requiring formal bilateral action
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Formal treaty or multi-point agreement signed by both governments15%
Clear, definitive joint public announcement of a permanent deal35%
Unforeseen, rapid diplomatic breakthrough leading to a deal2%
Evidence 0%Cluster: us-iran
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 10.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.245
MARKET ACCURACY
0.198
EDGE
-47.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 53.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 43.5% vs market 53.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.182-publish-floor-resolver-gate·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 18, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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