📈Finance/KALSHI/May 25, 2026
kalshi market

Will the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 be above 131.0?

PRISM
89.8%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
67.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-67pp

PRISM detected 22.8pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 90% against the market's 67%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 24, 2026 at 4:08 PM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+22.8ppPRISM 90% · Market 67%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
89.8%
VS
MARKET
67.0%
EDGE DETECTED22.8pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-33
PUBLISHED
May 25, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 5, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 24, 4:08 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 90% vs market 67% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 25, 6:09 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 69%

  3. Jun 5, 3:00 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
67.0%

The market was pricing this event at 67.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
89.8%
EDGE DETECTED
22.8pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 67%
  • ▸April’s 130.7 reading just below 131.0 and a modest upward trend justify staying aligned with market pricing
FACTORS FOR
  • +Headline FFPI has trended upward since early 2025
  • +Only a small increase from April’s 130.7 is needed
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Recent level remains below the 131.0 threshold
  • −No confirmed major new global food supply shocks
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Index continues recent upward trend, landing modestly above 13145%
Unexpected supply or cost shock pushes index clearly above 13122%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 22.8% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.482
MARKET ACCURACY
0.449
EDGE
-33.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 be above 131.0?, classifying it as underpriced at 67.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 89.8% vs market 67.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.170-resolver-relevance-floor·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: June 5, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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