🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/May 22, 2026
polymarket market
Diplomatic event

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?

PRISM
40.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
35.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-36pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 41% against the market's 36%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 21, 2026 at 10:06 AM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 41% · Market 36%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
40.5%
VS
MARKET
35.5%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
0
PUBLISHED
May 22, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 26, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events
  1. May 21, 10:06 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 41% vs market 36% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 22, 4:09 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 42%

  3. May 22, 4:09 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 36% → 42% (+7pp)

  4. May 26, 1:27 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
35.5%

The market was pricing this event at 35.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
40.5%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Signal suppressed by evidence gate (strong_contradiction)
  • ▸Cluster: geo:us-iran
  • ▸Not enough confirmed evidence to produce a contrarian call on this market
Evidence 52%Cluster: us-iranGate: Suppressed
SOURCES (7)
last day
  • Iran confirms receiving new ceasefire proposals from US | Geo ...youtube.com

    Iran confirms receiving new ceasefire proposals from US | Geo News 12 AM Geo Bulletin | 22 May 2026. 8.4K views · 12 hours ago.

    May 21Open →
  • Iran-US Talks | Trump Confirms Final Ceasefire Deal After ...youtube.com

    Iran-US Talks | Trump Confirms Final Ceasefire Deal After Pakistan's Big Move! Iran Shock Return #Iran #USA #IranUSWar #MohsinNaqvi #Tehran #China #UAE ...

    May 21Open →
  • Rubio says progress made in Iran talks but warns Trump has ...youtube.com

    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there are signs of progress in efforts to secure a deal with Iran but warns major challenges remain, ...

    May 21Open →
  • Has Trump been defeated by Iran? | ABC News Daily podcastyoutube.com

    It's almost three months since Donald Trump began the Iran war, but is there any chance that America can achieve anything that looks like victory?

    May 22Open →
  • Dan Hoffman on Iran's economic squeeze, sanctions ...foxnews.com

    Former CIA Station Chief Dan Hoffman analyzes Iran's use of ceasefire to rearm, its economic squeeze from US blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and the ...

    May 22Open →
  • Headlines for May 22, 2026democracynow.org

    Republican leaders in the House of Representatives called off a vote Thursday on a war powers resolution seeking to end President Trump's ability to strike Iran ...

    May 22Open →
  • Iran US Talks - Field Marshal Asim Munir Official Visit to Iran ...youtube.com

    Iran US Talks - Field Marshal Asim Munir Official Visit to Iran| ARY News 6PM Headlines | 22 May 26. 1K views · 25 minutes ago.

    May 22Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 5.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.176
MARKET ACCURACY
0.176
EDGE
0.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?, classifying it as underpriced at 35.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 40.5% vs market 35.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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RELATED INTEL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
LOSS
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
WIN
PRISM: v0.9.150-publish-autopsy·Forecasted: May 22, 2026·Resolved: May 26, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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