What happened
This market resolved NO on June 21, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
5 events- Apr 27, 4:12 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 16% vs market 16% — NONE FAIR
- May 3, 8:03 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 16% → 34% (+18pp)
- May 15, 8:20 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 49%
- May 15, 8:20 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 34% → 44% (+10pp)
- Jun 21, 2:02 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 43.9% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 46% that no qualifying U.S.–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by June 30, 2026
- ▸Stalled talks and a narrowing time window slightly favor continuation of the status quo over a rapid diplomatic shift
- +Recent reporting characterizes talks as stalled with proposals rejected.
- +No publicly scheduled direct meeting before the deadline is known.
- +Arranging and publicizing in-person diplomacy typically requires lead time.
- +Multiple actors and preconditions raise coordination barriers for a meeting.
- −Market-implied odds already price significant chance of no meeting.
- −Secret or rapidly arranged talks via mediators remain plausible.
- −Heightened tensions can sometimes catalyze urgent diplomacy.
- −Broad definition allows indirect in-person talks to qualify.
- Trump warns Iran: negotiate or face destruction amid ...cryptobriefing.com
Trump warns Iran to negotiate or face destruction. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 55.5% YES, while Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 17.5% ...
No timestampOpen → - Iran says it's ready to repel new U.S. attack with peace talks ...cbsnews.com
Iran's military says it's trained and ready for any new U.S. assault as President Trump predicted a "long talk" about the war with China's President Xi in ...
May 13Open → - Iran FM Araghchi meets PM Modi in New Delhitimesofindia.indiatimes.com
US Iran War News: The escalating standoff between the United States and Iran has entered a critical phase, with military escalation, diplomatic frict.
May 13Open → - Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?polymarket.com
The current probability for "Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance ...
Feb 28Open → - Trump says 'decimation' of Iran's army 'to be continued' ...timesofisrael.com
But diplomacy has been on hold since last week when Iran and the US each rejected the other's most recent proposals. US House rejects bid to rein in Trump's war ...
No timestampOpen → - IRAN REJECTED TRUMP'S DEAL + CHINA AGREED ON ...youtube.com
IRAN REJECTED TRUMP'S DEAL + CHINA AGREED ON HORMUZ + SILVER IS AT $85 - What Happens Next? ------- Trump flew to Beijing, shook hands with Xi, ...
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 4.9% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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