What happened
This market resolved NO on May 15, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 13, 10:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 61% vs market 53% — NONE FAIR
- May 14, 12:06 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 44%
- May 14, 12:06 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 53% → 31% (-22pp)
- May 15, 9:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 31.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Bitcoin is currently trading modestly below the 80,999.99 trigger with low recent volatility
- ▸Given small required upside and typical short‑term BTC variability, the event is slightly more likely than not
- +Current spot is only moderately below the 80,999.99 threshold
- +Bitcoin historically exhibits substantial short‑term volatility and intraday spikes
- +Recent trading around low‑80k suggests nearby resistance, not structural ceiling
- −Price is currently below the threshold with mild downward drift
- −Resolution uses strict ‘above’ average, not at‑or‑above
- −Index source and one‑minute averaging dampen impact of brief price wicks
- Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT - Crypto - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT. $81,000 or above50¢. $84,000 or above46¢.
May 9Open → - BTC 15 min · 11:30PM–11:45PM EDT Crypto Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
Will the price of Bitcoin be at or above the $81083.19 target price in the 15-minute window ... Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT · How high will XRP get ...
May 13Open → - Current price of Bitcoin for May 12, 2026 - Fortunefortune.com
At 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time on May 12, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (1 BTC) is $80,860.97. That represents a $363.20 decrease from yesterday morning and about a ...
May 13Open → - BTC price on May 15 | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
If the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $77,500 or above on May 15, 2026 at 5pm ET, the market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to No.
May 11Open → - XRP 15 min · $1.4330 target | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT? $67,000 or above · 99%. Bitcoin price on May 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT? $77,500 or above · 99%. Bitcoin price at the end of ...
May 13Open → - Bitcoin Price Stuck Below 200 EMA at $82,000 in a 2% Volatility Cage ...financemagnates.com
Bitcoin traded near $81,400 on Wednesday, May 13, 2026, stuck inside a 2% range just below the 200-day exponential moving average at roughly $82,000.
May 13Open → - Verified crypto market datacoingecko.com
## VERIFIED CRYPTO DATA (USE THESE NUMBERS — DO NOT HALLUCINATE PRICES) CRITICAL: The following price data is verified and current as of this moment. Use ONLY these numbers in your analysis. DO NOT substitute with any other price data. Asset: Bitcoin (BTC) Current Price: $79,334 (VERIFIED — use this exact number) 24h Change: -1.34% 7d Change: -2.47% All-Time High: $126,080 (-37.1% from ATH) Market Cap: $1588.6B 24h Volume: $45.1B ## ANTI-CONFUSION RULE (MANDATORY) CRITICAL: Market probability (e.g., 38% chance of YES) is NOT the same as price movement (e.g., 5.2% decline needed). These are completely different numbers. Never confuse them. - "38% probability" = the market thinks there is a 38
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 13.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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