1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 8, 8:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 84% vs market 66% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 9:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +53% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
65.5%
The market was pricing this event at 65.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
83.6%
EDGE DETECTED
15.3pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
52.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Ethereum trades at $2,212.57, providing $42.58 cushion above $2,169.99 threshold
- ▸Market may underestimate probability of maintaining this modest buffer through April 10
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price $42.58 above threshold
- +Recent +4.29% daily momentum
- +CoinCodex forecasts $2,283.61 target
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Two-day window allows volatility
- −Crypto markets highly unpredictable
- −No major catalysts supporting price
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Price stays above $2,169.99 through settlement60%
Temporary dip below threshold before recovery7%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 18.1% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.027
MARKET ACCURACY
0.119
EDGE
+92.2
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 65.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 83.6% vs market 65.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 8, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.