What happened
This market resolved NO on May 18, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 17, 10:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 13% vs market 21% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 18, 4:14 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +26% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 20.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Matti Schmid’s win probability is modest despite entering Round 4 two shots back in the final pairing
- ▸Limited major-championship pedigree and strong overall field depth materially constrain his winning chances
- +Tied second and just two shots back entering final round
- +In final pairing with leader, maximizing win leverage on Sunday
- −No prior top-tier major record or elite-win track record
- −Strong, deep major field with many contenders within a few shots
- 2026 PGA Championship odds, predictions: Sunday picks by model ...cbssports.com
The final grouping of Smalley and Matti Schmid tees off at 2:35 p.m. ET. Smalley is the +480 favorite (risk $100 to win $480) in the 2026 PGA Championship odds ...
May 17Open → - 4th Round Head-to-Head: Smalley vs Schmid Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
If Matti Schmid wins the head-to-head matchup against Alex Smalley in the 4th round of the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
May 17Open → - PGA Tour: Final Pairings Betting Odds - FanDuel Sportsbooksportsbook.fanduel.com
Matti Schmid. +110. Alex Smalley. -138. More wagers. 2 Ball (Round 4) - Rahm ... Who Has the Best Odds to Win the 2026 PGA Championship? For the upcoming ...
May 17Open → - PGA Championship: Top 5 Finishers Odds and Forecast | Octagon AIoctagonai.co
After the third round of the 2026 PGA Championship, Aaron Rai holds the lead, with Matti Schmid also in contention, and a group including Chris Kirk, Alex ...
May 17Open → - Who Is Matti Schmid? A Look at the German Making His PGA ...pgachampionship.com
The 28-year-old from Regensburg, Germany is making his PGA Championship debut this week and enters the final round at -4, two shots behind leader Alex Smalley.
May 17Open → - 2026 PGA Championship Golf Betting: Final-Round Predictions ...vsin.com
Smalley will be in the final group tomorrow with Matti Schmid (30/1), who like his playing partner, is seeking his first professional victory after shooting a 5 ...
May 17Open → - Alex Smalley Leads PGA Championship Leaderboard as McIlroy ...heavy.com
Alex Smalley leads the PGA Championship entering Sunday as updated leaderboard standings and betting odds tighten at Aronimink ... Matti Schmid (-4). T2. Nick ...
May 17Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 7.5% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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