What happened
This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
5 events- Apr 26, 12:12 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 26% vs market 28% — NONE FAIR
- Apr 27, 4:12 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 28% → 34% (+6pp)
- May 1, 4:10 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 34% → 17% (-17pp)
- May 15, 12:04 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 31%
- Jun 1, 2:50 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 20.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Google has a meaningful but minority chance to hold the top leaderboard slot
- ▸Competitive upgrade cycles from multiple labs and snapshot-based resolution constrain upside probability
- +Google currently holds #1 on the specified leaderboard.
- +Alphabetical tie-breaker favors Google over several close competitors.
- −Strong pipeline of upgrades from multiple top competitors before May 2026.
- −Leaderboard depends on crowd preferences, not pure technical capability.
- The 10 best AI models in 2026 | The Jotform Blogjotform.com
GPT-4o is the most powerful option in their current lineup. You can use the AI model in ChatGPT to generate text — users on a free plan have limited access.
May 12Open → - Accelerating on-device AI: A look at Arm and Google AI Edge ...developers.googleblog.com
Discover how Arm SME2 and Google AI Edge streamline on-device generative AI, delivering 5x faster inference and significant memory savings for multimodal ...
May 14Open → - Google Just Changed AI Forever | Gemini Era Explained (I/O 2026)youtube.com
... Google's latest models handle massive 2-million token contexts and deliver faster, smarter, and more efficient AI performance. Project Astra Meet Google's ...
May 14Open → - Top AI this week Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Top AI this week", or trade it yourself.
May 16Open → - Best AI Models May 2026: Winners, Losers & Full Comparisonbuildfastwithai.com
19 AI models dropped in 30 days. GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, Gemini 3.1, DeepSeek V4 - here is which one actually wins in May 2026.
May 9Open → - Will Google I/O 2026 Launch Gemini 4.0? Markets Eye AI ...tradingkey.com
Google I/O 2026, commencing May 19 ET, will feature Gemini prominently, with potential new model releases and AI smart glasses. Google Marketing Live ...
May 14Open → - Why Google I/O 2026 Is Different This Time — Agentic AI, Unified OS ...pub.towardsai.net
Gemini 4 is the most anticipated AI model release of 2026 from Google, and the early signals are extraordinary. According to multiple credible reports, Gemini ...
May 11Open → - Google I/O 2026: AI Takes Center Stage With New Gemini and ...trendingtopics.eu
When Google opens its developer conference I/O in Mountain View next Tuesday, artificial intelligence is once again expected to take center stage.
May 15Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 10.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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