🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/April 1, 2026
polymarket market

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

PRISM
1.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
21.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-22pp

PRISM detected 11.0pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 22%. Model estimate: 1%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+27% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 1, 2026 at 8:03 PM
STRONG · OVERPRICED+11.0ppPRISM 1% · Market 22%
PRISM
1.0%
VS
MARKET
21.5%
EDGE DETECTED11.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
STRONG
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+46
PUBLISHED
Apr 1, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 4, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 1, 8:03 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 1% vs market 22% — STRONG OVERPRICED

  2. May 4, 6:37 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +27% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
21.5%

The market was pricing this event at 21.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
11.0pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
70.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸No verified reports of non-US countries planning military action against Iran, with social sentiment at 8% strongly disagreeing with market's 21.5% pricing
  • ▸Market appears to overweight tail risks from general escalation fears without specific third-party threats
FACTORS FOR
  • +Regional tensions could escalate unexpectedly
  • +Gulf states have security concerns about Iran
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No verified third-party military preparations
  • −US-dominated conflict with no allied participation signals
  • −Social sentiment strongly bearish at 8%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 20.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.046
EDGE
+46.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 21.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 21.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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RELATED INTEL
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LOSS
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
WIN
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: May 4, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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