1
What happened
This market resolved NO on May 4, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 8:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 22% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- May 4, 6:37 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +27% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
21.5%
The market was pricing this event at 21.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
11.0pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
70.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸No verified reports of non-US countries planning military action against Iran, with social sentiment at 8% strongly disagreeing with market's 21.5% pricing
- ▸Market appears to overweight tail risks from general escalation fears without specific third-party threats
FACTORS FOR
- +Regional tensions could escalate unexpectedly
- +Gulf states have security concerns about Iran
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No verified third-party military preparations
- −US-dominated conflict with no allied participation signals
- −Social sentiment strongly bearish at 8%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 20.5% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.046
EDGE
+46.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 21.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 21.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: May 4, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.