🏛Politics/POLYMARKET/May 26, 2026
polymarket market
Election result

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

PRISM
52.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
62.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+38pp

PRISM detected 6.5pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 53% against the market's 63%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED-100% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 26, 2026 at 10:11 PM
MODERATE+6.5ppPRISM 53% · Market 63%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +3.7pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
52.5%
VS
MARKET
62.5%
EDGE DETECTED6.5pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-23
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 7, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

5 events
  1. Apr 26, 8:12 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 67% vs market 66% — NONE FAIR

  2. Apr 26, 10:11 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 53%

  3. May 4, 8:13 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 65%

  4. May 26, 8:09 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 67%

  5. Jun 7, 12:00 AMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
62.5%

The market was pricing this event at 62.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
52.5%
EDGE DETECTED
6.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Current market pricing slightly overstates Fujimori’s advantage in a highly uncertain runoff
  • ▸Tight polls and many undecided voters argue for only a modest edge over Sánchez
FACTORS FOR
  • +Runoff polling shows Fujimori narrowly ahead of Sánchez
  • +Some expert analysis views her as slight favorite
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Large undecided and blank-intending electorate increases volatility
  • −Expert scenario breakdown gives only marginal advantage, not 70%+
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Orderly runoff with Fujimori narrowly winning official count60%
Disputed process ends with Fujimori officially declared winner9%
Evidence 47%
SOURCES (5)
last day
  • Peru at a Crossroads: The 2026 Elections and the Future of Political ...lansinginstitute.org

    The upcoming presidential elections in Peru represent one of the most consequential political moments in the country's modern history. After.

    May 25Open →
  • Peru Runoff: Will Fujimori Win by 0-4%? - Lines.comlines.com

    Peru's June 7 runoff pits Keiko Fujimori against Roberto Sanchez. The Fujimori 0-4% margin band trades at 41.5% with $12586 in volume and deep liquidity.

    May 25Open →
  • Peru's 2026 Elections: How Fujimori-Sanchez presidential debate ...andina.pe

    Últimas noticias de Perú y el mundo sobre política, locales, deportes, culturales, espectáculos, economía, y tecnología en la Agencia Peruana de Noticias ...

    May 25Open →
  • Peru's Election Turmoil And Why Chaos Drives Away Capitalexpatmoney.com

    Peru's election chaos reveals the dangers of political uncertainty and its impact on capital. Learn how to evaluate risks and protect your family's future.

    May 26Open →
  • Peru's leftist Sanchez to face Fujimori in June presidential runoffstraitstimes.com

    LIMA, May 15 - Peru's leftist presidential candidate Roberto Sanchez will face Keiko Fujimori in the June runoff after narrowly securing second place in ...

    May 25Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 10.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.110
MARKET ACCURACY
0.087
EDGE
-23.1
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?, classifying it as overpriced at 62.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 52.5% vs market 62.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS
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PRISM: v0.9.176-actionable-slot-priority·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 7, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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