1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 9, 12:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 92% vs market 78% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 9:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +29% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
77.5%
The market was pricing this event at 77.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
92.3%
EDGE DETECTED
12.1pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
65.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Bitcoin at $71,092 needs only 2.7% decline to breach $69,499.99 threshold
- ▸Market pricing 77.5% probability appears slightly elevated given crypto volatility
FACTORS FOR
- +Currently trading above threshold
- +18-month timeframe allows recovery
- +Historical Bitcoin appreciation trend
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Only 2.7% buffer above threshold
- −High crypto volatility
- −CF Benchmarks may differ from spot
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Bitcoin stays above $69,500 through April 202665%
Temporary decline below threshold but recovers before settlement10%
Sustained decline keeps price below threshold25%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 14.8% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.006
MARKET ACCURACY
0.051
EDGE
+44.7
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 77.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 92.3% vs market 77.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 9, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.