Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Rotten Tomatoes score? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 25, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

8 events

May 19, 4:06 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 70% vs market 48% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 19, 10:06 PMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 71% — edge +35.0pp
May 19, 10:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 48% → 36% (-12pp)
May 21, 12:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 69% — edge +10.0pp
May 22, 8:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 36% → 21% (-15pp)
May 23, 2:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 21% → 36% (+15pp)
May 25, 6:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 50%
May 25, 3:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

48.0%

The market was pricing this event at 48.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

70.0%

EDGE DETECTED

22.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a better-than-even chance the film clears a modest 60% Tomatometer
▸This matters because current pricing implies an overly bearish view of a core Star Wars theatrical release

FACTORS FOR

+Core Star Wars films historically tend to review above 60
+60% is a low bar relative to franchise expectations

FACTORS AGAINST

−No verified early score or critic reactions yet
−Recent franchise fatigue could pressure reviews below prior averages

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Broadly positive reviews place score comfortably above 6045%

Mixed critical reception still yields modestly fresh score above 6018%

Evidence 49%

SOURCES (1)

last week

Rotten Tomatoes (Tomatometer) resolution contextrottentomatoes.com
Source: Rotten Tomatoes (Tomatometer) Resolution field: Tomatometer score at 10:00 AM ET on specified date (Monday after wide release). Score must be ABOVE strike value (not equal). Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/RT.pdf Known rule risks: ABOVE means strictly greater than — a score exactly equal to the strike = NO; "Fresh!" and "Certified Fresh!" subtitles on Kalshi are ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY — not part of resolution criteria; Resolution is at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday after wide release — NOT opening weekend
May 25Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 22.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.246

MARKET ACCURACY

0.410

EDGE

+163.6

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Rotten Tomatoes score?, classifying it as underpriced at 48.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 70.0% vs market 48.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.167-fresh-source-hygiene·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: May 25, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.