₿Crypto/POLYMARKET/March 29, 2026
polymarket market

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

PRISM
50.9%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
59.3%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+41pp

PRISM detected 7.4pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 51% against the market's 59%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED-100% return
ISSUED FORECASTMar 29, 2026 at 12:03 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+7.4ppPRISM 51% · Market 59%
PRISM
50.9%
VS
MARKET
59.3%
EDGE DETECTED7.4pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
-75
PUBLISHED
Mar 29, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on April 1, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Mar 29, 12:03 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 51% vs market 59% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 1, 4:00 AMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
59.3%

The market was pricing this event at 59.3% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
50.9%
EDGE DETECTED
7.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
14.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Bitcoin needs only 2.77% drop to $65,000 but recent support holds firm above $66,800
  • ▸Market overprices downside risk given neutral sentiment and technical resilience
FACTORS FOR
  • +Only 2.77% drop required from current levels
  • +Historical volatility shows 3%+ daily moves possible
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Strong support held at $66,800-$67,000 range
  • −Neutral-bullish sentiment contradicts bearish pricing
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 8.4% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.241
MARKET ACCURACY
0.166
EDGE
-75.1
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?, classifying it as overpriced at 59.3%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 50.9% vs market 59.3%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: March 29, 2026·Resolved: April 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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