Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 26, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events

May 21, 6:06 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 71% vs market 62% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 21, 4:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 61%
May 26, 1:30 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

61.5%

The market was pricing this event at 61.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

71.0%

EDGE DETECTED

9.5pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Probability estimate: 60%
▸Market may underweight that only explicitly confirmed US aerial strikes on Iranian soil break the ceasefire by these rules

FACTORS FOR

+Verified trackers show ceasefire still holding as of May 20
+Definition excludes proxy, maritime, and non-aerial confrontations

FACTORS AGAINST

−Ceasefire assessed as fragile with risk of renewed conflict
−US–Iran tensions and negotiations could sour quickly

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

No qualifying US aerial strike on Iranian soil before deadline55%

Borderline incident occurs but lacks confirmation to trigger NO5%

Evidence 58%Cluster: us-iran

SOURCES (2)

last day

Irangiwps.georgetown.edu
Authorities have sustained Iran's longest recorded internet blackout into May 2026 ... Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the US have helped ...
May 21Open →
Iran Update Special Report, May 20, 2026understandingwar.org
Iran is likely using the ceasefire period to normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz by compelling oil-importing countries to establish a bilateral ...
May 20Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 9.5% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.370

MARKET ACCURACY

0.331

EDGE

-38.9

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?, classifying it as underpriced at 61.5%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 71.0% vs market 61.5%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS

RELATED INTEL

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

LOSS

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

LOSS

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

WIN

PRISM: v0.9.141-kalshi-attention-backstop·Forecasted: May 21, 2026·Resolved: May 26, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.