What happened
This market resolved NO on May 20, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
5 events- May 16, 2:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 55% vs market 53% — NONE FAIR
- May 16, 8:06 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 53% → 44% (-9pp)
- May 16, 2:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 44% → 31% (-13pp)
- May 16, 10:07 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 31% → 18% (-13pp)
- May 20, 4:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 18.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 21% that Powell is out as chair pro tempore before resolution
- ▸Any timely swearing-in of Warsh flips the contract, so traders must price procedural timing risk carefully
- +Fed and White House prefer minimizing ambiguity at leadership apex
- +Senate confirmation already complete; remaining steps are procedural
- −No confirmed swearing-in date or time in available sources
- −Short window leaves room for bureaucratic or scheduling slippage
- Powell Named Temporary Fed Chair Until Warsh Takes Oathnews.bitcoin.com
Jerome Powell will remain Federal Reserve chair on a temporary basis as Kevin Warsh waits to take the oath. The board used a chair pro tempore designation.
May 16Open → - US Fed Names Jerome Powell Chair Pro Tempore Until Kevin ...ndtvprofit.com
The Federal Reserve on Friday named Jerome Powell the temporary chair of the Board of Governors until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in, ...
May 16Open → - Statement by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman and ...federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve Board names Jerome H. Powell as chair pro tempore; Powell will serve as chair pro tempore until Kevin M. Warsh is sworn in as the new chair ...
May 16Open → - Fed names Powell as chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn inthestandard.com.hk
The Federal Reserve Board on Friday said it has named Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh is sworn in as the new head of the U.S. central bank.
May 16Open → - Powell Named Fed Chair Pro Tempore Pending Warsh Swearing-Inbusinesstoday.com.my
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Board has named Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore following the expiry of his eight-year term as head of the US central bank, ...
May 16Open → - Fed appoints Powell interim chair ahead of turbulent Warsh transitioninvesting.com
While Powell is officially stepping down from the chairmanship, he is executing a highly unusual strategy by refusing to vacate his separate seat on the Fed's ...
May 16Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 2.8% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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