What happened
This market resolved NO on May 25, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
3 events- May 23, 10:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 60% vs market 64% — NONE FAIR
- May 24, 6:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 87%
- May 25, 2:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 64.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸AAA’s May 21 national average of $4.564 sits comfortably above the $4.530 threshold with recent gains
- ▸With limited time before resolution, only a notable pullback would flip this market
- +AAA national average at $4.564 recently, above $4.530 threshold
- +Recent week-over-week increases support prices staying elevated
- −Gasoline prices can retrace quickly on crude or refining shifts
- −Holiday demand surge could fade right before the reference date
- War Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Surge - NerdWalletnerdwallet.com
The average regular gas price in the U.S. as of May 18 is $4.515 per gallon, according to AAA. One week ago: $4.520. One month ago: $4.058.
May 18Open → - Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Reach Four-Year Highsgasprices.aaa.com
The national average for a gallon of regular is at $4.56, up 3 cents over last week and $1.38 higher than this time last year. Current prices are close to what ...
May 21Open → - Gasoline prices, liter, 18-May-2026 - GlobalPetrolPrices.comglobalpetrolprices.com
Gasoline prices, Octane-95, 18-May-2026: The average price of gasoline around the world is 1.53 U.S. Dollar per liter. However, there is substantial ...
May 18Open → - U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov
U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices.
May 19Open → - U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov
U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail ...
May 19Open → - Latest News - AAA Fuel Pricesgasprices.aaa.com
Pump prices are now $1.40 higher than they were a year ago…Read more » · Oil Prices Spike, National Average Up Nearly 30 Cents in One Week. April 30,2026.
May 21Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 22.7% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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