Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

5 events

May 6, 6:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 25% vs market 35% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
May 6, 8:11 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 46%
May 6, 8:11 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 35% → 46% (+11pp)
May 11, 5:40 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 46% → 28% (-18pp)
Jun 1, 7:00 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

35.0%

The market was pricing this event at 35.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

25.3%

EDGE DETECTED

8.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE OVERPRICED

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Signal suppressed by evidence gate (rumor_heavy)
▸Cluster: geo:us-iran
▸Not enough confirmed evidence to produce a contrarian call on this market

Evidence 27%Cluster: us-iranGate: Suppressed

SOURCES (2)

last day

China's role in the Middle Easttribune.com.pk
The two countries have close relations and have been involved in persuading Iran to reach a deal with Washington to end the war. Pakistan, which hosted a round ...
May 10Open →
US being 'humiliated' by Iran, German chancellor saysgoodmorningamerica.com
The president later told The New York Post that his advisers, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, would be heading to Islamabad on his behalf.
May 10Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 9.7% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.081

MARKET ACCURACY

0.081

EDGE

0.0

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?, classifying it as overpriced at 35.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 25.3% vs market 35.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS

RELATED INTEL

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

LOSS

🌍Geopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

LOSS

🌍Geopolitics

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

WIN

PRISM: v0.9.112-finance-search-agent-api·Forecasted: May 11, 2026·Resolved: June 1, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.