Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? — PRISM Activity

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 15, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

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Forecast Tape

2 events

May 27, 12:10 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 51% vs market 51% — NONE FAIR
Jun 15, 12:23 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

51.0%

The market was pricing this event at 51.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

51.0%

EDGE DETECTED

0.0pp

FORECAST

NONE FAIR

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Signal suppressed by evidence gate (strong_contradiction)
▸Cluster: geo:hormuz-blockade
▸Not enough confirmed evidence to produce a contrarian call on this market

Evidence 45%Cluster: hormuz-blockadeGate: Suppressed

SOURCES (2)

last day

Washington | International Crisis Groupcrisisgroup.org
President Trump asserted that “the Strait of Hormuz is completely open… but the naval blockade of Iran will remain in force and effect as it pertains to ...
May 26Open →
Trump's Iran Proposal Has Echoes of Half-Finished Gaza Dealgvwire.com
Officials say the Trump administration's latest proposal focuses on ending Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is a key ...
May 26Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 0.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.240

MARKET ACCURACY

0.240

EDGE

0.0

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?, classifying it as fair at 51.0%.

2.Forecast classification: NONE FAIR — PRISM estimate 51.0% vs market 51.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.192-strict-claim-quarantine·Forecasted: May 27, 2026·Resolved: June 15, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.