🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/May 11, 2026
polymarket market
Geopolitical event

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

PRISM
53.6%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
56.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
—
MOVE
—

PRISM analyzed this market — no actionable edge classified

PRISM analyzed this market on May 11, 2026. PRISM estimate 54% vs market 56%. No actionable edge classified.

PRISM ACTIVITY
PRISM
53.6%
VS
MARKET
56.5%
EDGE DETECTED0.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
—
FORECAST
NONE
DIRECTION
FAIR
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
—
PUBLISHED
May 11, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market has not yet resolved.

◈

Forecast Tape

7 events
  1. May 6, 5:16 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 61% vs market 63% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 6, 12:05 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 68% — edge +10.3pp

  3. May 6, 12:05 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 63% → 83% (+20pp)

  4. May 8, 10:06 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Prism 64% — edge +0.0pp

  5. May 8, 10:06 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 83% → 73% (-10pp)

  6. May 9, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 73% → 66% (-7pp)

  7. May 11, 5:40 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 66% → 60% (-6pp)

  8. NowLIVE

    Awaiting resolution.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
56.5%

The market was pricing this event at 56.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
53.6%
EDGE DETECTED
0.0pp
FORECAST
NONE FAIR
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 59%
  • ▸Multiple plausible diplomatic and political paths to an explicit lifting announcement exist, and the rules allow several different qualifying announcement channels
FACTORS FOR
  • +Any explicit Trump or USG statement lifting the blockade qualifies
  • +Economic and oil-market pressure to normalize Hormuz traffic by summer
  • +Mediation efforts already underway despite difficult rhetoric
  • +Blockades are rarely maintained indefinitely at full strength
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Talks currently characterized as facing serious obstacles
  • −Domestic political incentives to maintain a hard line on Iran
  • −Requirement for clear, explicit language may delay formal wording
  • −Risk of conflict escalation extending blockade beyond June
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
US-Iran or multilateral deal includes announced end of blockade33%
Trump announces lifting for strategic, electoral, or economic reasons16%
US announces partial or scheduled end that clearly qualifies10%
Evidence 55%Cluster: hormuz-blockade
SOURCES (2)
last day
  • Iran threatens permanent closure of Strait of Hormuz amid US ...cryptobriefing.com

    Iran threatens permanent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic normal by May 15 at 0.7% YES, by end of May at 13.5% YES, and blockade lifted by May 31 at ...

    May 11Open →
  • Trump says Iran's response to US plan 'totally unacceptable'chinadailyasia.com

    Iran's response to the latest US proposed text for ending the conflict was sent on Sunday to mediator Pakistan, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported.

    May 11Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism detected 2.9% mispricing (overpriced)

5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?, classifying it as fair at 56.5%.
2.Forecast classification: NONE FAIR — PRISM estimate 53.6% vs market 56.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: awaiting resolution.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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RELATED INTEL
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PRISM: v0.9.114-structured-blind-verifier-lane·Forecasted: May 11, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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