1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 12, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 10, 10:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 34% vs market 24% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 12, 12:00 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
23.5%
The market was pricing this event at 23.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
33.5%
EDGE DETECTED
8.5pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
13.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.3%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Polling shows competitive race but structural advantages favor Fidesz-KDNP retaining plurality
- ▸Market undervalues incumbency effects and electoral system benefits despite opposition momentum
FACTORS FOR
- +14-year incumbency with institutional advantages
- +Fragmented opposition lacking unified strategy
- +Electoral system favoring rural districts
- +Pro-government polls show competitive margins
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Tisza Party surge in independent polling
- −Economic discontent and inflation concerns
- −Anti-Orbán sentiment in urban areas
- −Péter Magyar's rising popularity
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Fidesz wins most seats with 45-50% support25%
Fidesz retains plurality despite opposition gains10%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 10.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.112
MARKET ACCURACY
0.055
EDGE
-57.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?, classifying it as underpriced at 23.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 33.5% vs market 23.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.3% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.6·Forecasted: April 10, 2026·Resolved: April 12, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.