1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 8, 6:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 88% vs market 69% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +46% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
68.5%
The market was pricing this event at 68.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
88.1%
EDGE DETECTED
18.3pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
62.2%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Ethereum trades at $2,230.1, requiring only 0.5% decline to breach $2,219.99 threshold before 5pm EDT settlement
- ▸CF Benchmarks ERTI averaging methodology reduces flash crash risk compared to spot pricing
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price $10 above threshold
- +ERTI averaging smooths volatility
- +Short 3-hour window limits downside
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Crypto volatility can breach small margins
- −No fundamental support at threshold level
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Price stays above $2,219.99 through 5pm EDT65%
Brief dip below threshold but recovers before settlement5%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 19.6% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.014
MARKET ACCURACY
0.099
EDGE
+85.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 68.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 88.1% vs market 68.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 8, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.