📈Finance/KALSHI/May 25, 2026
kalshi market
BLS CPI release

Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 25, 2026 be above $2.78 per dozen eggs?

PRISM
84.9%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
79.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-79pp

PRISM detected 5.9pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 85% against the market's 79%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED-100% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 25, 2026 at 6:09 PM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+5.9ppPRISM 85% · Market 79%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +5.9pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
84.9%
VS
MARKET
79.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.9pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-98
PUBLISHED
May 25, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 26, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. May 25, 6:09 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 85% vs market 79% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 26, 3:30 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
79.0%

The market was pricing this event at 79.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
84.9%
EDGE DETECTED
5.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Estimated probability: 81% that the Truflation eggs index finishes above the contract threshold
  • ▸Source clarity and recent bullish pricing on adjacent days support a modestly higher-than-market YES edge
FACTORS FOR
  • +Recent very similar Truflation-egg markets priced strongly toward YES
  • +Underlying CPI trend remains upward into April 2026
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No verified live Truflation eggs index level available
  • −Threshold figure conflict between user prompt and market summary
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Index already above strike intraday and stays elevated into settlement65%
Index near threshold now and drifts modestly higher by settlement16%
Evidence 70%Cluster: macro:cpi-print
SOURCES (3)
last week
  • Truflation US CPI Eggs Indextruflation.com

    The Eggs Index combines retail prices from major grocers with USDA and key wholesale markets to track the prices of eggs in real time.

    May 23Open →
  • FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org

    ## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — CPI (ALL URBAN CONSUMERS) (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: CPI (All Urban Consumers) Latest Value: 332.41 (as of 2026-04-01) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +2.11 (+0.64%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-12-01: 326.03 2026-01-01: 326.59 2026-02-01: 327.46 2026-03-01: 330.29 2026-04-01: 332.41 Related indicator — Core CPI: 335.42 (as of 2026-04-01), change: +1.26 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: 25.00 index Current value: 332.41 Distance to target:

    May 25Open →
  • BLS verified labor/inflation databls.gov

    ## VERIFIED BLS DATA — CPI-U (ALL ITEMS) (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — the OFFICIAL resolution source for Kalshi economic markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) — OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT DATA Series: CUSR0000SA0 Indicator: CPI-U (All Items) Reference Period: April 2026 Latest Index Value: 332.407 (as of 2026-04-01) — VERIFIED Previous Month Value: 330.293 Month-over-Month Change: +2.114 (+0.640%) Year-over-Year Change: +12.105 (+3.779%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-12-01: 326.031 2026-01-01: 326.588 2026-02-01: 327.460 2026-03-01: 330.29

    May 25Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 5.9% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.722
MARKET ACCURACY
0.624
EDGE
-97.6
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 25, 2026 be above $2.78 per dozen eggs?, classifying it as underpriced at 79.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 84.9% vs market 79.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.170-resolver-relevance-floor·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: May 26, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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