What happened
This market resolved NO on May 28, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 23, 4:09 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 74% vs market 76% — NONE FAIR
- May 24, 8:10 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 29%
- May 24, 8:10 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 76% → 25% (-51pp)
- May 28, 6:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 25.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸The verified WTI spot price is $112.25, significantly above the $112.25 threshold with 82 hours to resolution
- ▸The market appears to be overestimating the probability of a sharp reversal below the strike
- +Spot price currently $17.26 above threshold
- +Strong upward momentum in recent price action
- −High volatility inherent in oil markets
- −Short timeframe allows for potential sharp corrections
- Crude Oil Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Crude Oil Futures - Settlements ; MAR 27, 77.48, 78.62 ; APR 27, 76.72, 77.61 ; MAY 27, 76.12, 76.56B ; JUN 27, 75.10, 76.59B ...
May 22Open → - Crude Oil Market Prices, Data, and Analysis - S&P Globalspglobal.com
We provide comprehensive and timely information on crude oil, including historical and spot prices. We also provide real-time data, allowing market ...
May 20Open → - WTI Financial Futures Quotes - CME Groupcmegroup.com
WTI Financial Futures - Quotes ; MAY 2026. CSXK6 · 102.59 ; JUN 2026. CSXM6 · 102.98 ; JUL 2026. CSXN6 · 97.77 ; AUG 2026. CSXQ6 · 93.48 ; SEP 2026. CSXU6 · 89.98.
May 20Open → - Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) - EIAeia.gov
2026 Apr-27 to May- 1, 99.89, 103.45, 110.47, 108.64, 105.38. 2026 May- 4 to May ... Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products.
May 20Open → - Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Data - Investing.cominvesting.com
Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Data ; May 20, 2026, 98.26, 104.12 ; May 19, 2026, 107.77, 107.11 ; May 18, 2026, 108.66, 106.00 ; May 15, 2026, 105.42, 102.06 ...
May 24Open → - Crude Oil WTI Jul '26 (CLN26) - Barchart.combarchart.com
July WTI crude oil (CLN26) on Friday closed up +0.25 (+0.26%), and July RBOB gasoline (RBN26) closed up +0.0756 (+2.31%). Crude oil rebounded from a 1-week low ...
May 22Open → - Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) - EIAeia.gov
Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products.
May 20Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Latest Value: $112.25 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$3.26 (+2.99%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $105.78 2026-05-13: $104.52 2026-05-14: $104.66 2026-05-15: $108.99 2026-05-18: $112.25 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $94.99 $/barrel Current value: $112.25 Distance to target: $17.26 ABOVE target (18.2% above) Direction required: Value must stay above or ris
May 24Open → - EIA verified energy dataeia.gov
## VERIFIED EIA ENERGY DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — the OFFICIAL government source. This is the SAME data Kalshi uses to settle energy markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with other sources. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Latest Value: $112.25 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED, OFFICIAL Latest change: UP $3.26 (+2.99%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $105.78 2026-05-13: $104.52 2026-05-14: $104.66 2026-05-15: $108.99 2026-05-18: $112.25 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target threshold: $94.99 $/barrel Current EIA v
May 24Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 4.1% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTS