🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/April 9, 2026
polymarket market

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

PRISM
36.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
44.1%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-44pp

PRISM detected 6.3pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 44%. Model estimate: 37%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+79% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 9, 2026 at 12:04 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+6.3ppPRISM 37% · Market 44%
PRISM
36.5%
VS
MARKET
44.1%
EDGE DETECTED6.3pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+61
PUBLISHED
Apr 9, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on April 15, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 9, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 37% vs market 44% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 15, 12:28 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +79% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
44.1%

The market was pricing this event at 44.1% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
36.5%
EDGE DETECTED
6.3pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
17.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.2%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Recent ceasefire enables diplomatic framework but confirmed talks scheduled April 11 miss April 10 deadline
  • ▸Market appears optimistic despite timing mismatch and historical indirect-only pattern
FACTORS FOR
  • +April 8 ceasefire creates diplomatic opening
  • +High-level officials confirmed for talks
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Scheduled talks are April 11, past deadline
  • −Historical pattern shows only indirect meetings
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Emergency bilateral meeting before April 11 talks25%
Islamabad talks moved up to April 108%
Unscheduled direct meeting during ceasefire window5%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 7.6% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.134
MARKET ACCURACY
0.194
EDGE
+60.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 44.1%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 36.5% vs market 44.1%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.2% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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RELATED INTEL
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US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
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PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 9, 2026·Resolved: April 15, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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