1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 2, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 2, 10:03 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 9% vs market 42% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 2, 4:10 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +71% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
41.5%
The market was pricing this event at 41.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
9.3%
EDGE DETECTED
23.4pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
72.4%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸DN SOOPers enters as consistent favorite across betting platforms with 1.595 odds versus DRX's 2.360
- ▸Market may undervalue DN SOOPers' February 2026 head-to-head victory and bookmaker consensus
FACTORS FOR
- +DRX superior First 15 Kills rate at 62.5%
- +Strong mid-game performance statistics
FACTORS AGAINST
- −DN SOOPers favored at 1.595 Pinnacle odds
- −Won prior 2-1 matchup in February
- −60% implied probability across prediction markets
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 32.2% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.009
MARKET ACCURACY
0.172
EDGE
+163.6
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner, classifying it as overpriced at 41.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 9.3% vs market 41.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 2, 2026·Resolved: April 2, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.