📈Finance/KALSHI/May 26, 2026
kalshi market

Will the price of the Bezel Omega Index be Above $5534 at May 31, 2026?

PRISM
52.9%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
48.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+52pp

PRISM detected 4.9pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 53% against the market's 48%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 24, 2026 at 8:07 PM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+4.9ppPRISM 53% · Market 48%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.9pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
52.9%
VS
MARKET
48.0%
EDGE DETECTED4.9pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
+57
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 31, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events
  1. May 23, 6:56 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 48% vs market 48% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 24, 8:07 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 53%

  3. May 26, 12:06 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 54%

  4. May 31, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
48.0%

The market was pricing this event at 48.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
52.9%
EDGE DETECTED
4.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Estimated probability is roughly in line with the market at 49%, reflecting high uncertainty from missing index data
  • ▸With no verified price history, meaningful edge over current pricing is limited
FACTORS FOR
  • +Market odds and social signal cluster near 50% balance
  • +Short time to resolution limits scope for large repricing shocks
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No verified data on current index level or volatility
  • −Unclear underlying methodology or liquidity of Bezel Omega Index
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Index level remains stable or trends modestly upward above $5,53430%
Index moves from below to above $5,534 intraday on May 3119%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 4.9% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.213
MARKET ACCURACY
0.270
EDGE
+57.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the price of the Bezel Omega Index be Above $5534 at May 31, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 48.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 52.9% vs market 48.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS
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PRISM: v0.9.175-brier-era-guard·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: May 31, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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