📈Finance/KALSHI/May 25, 2026
kalshi market

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60?

PRISM
45.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
50.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-50pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 50%. Model estimate: 45%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+100% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 20, 2026 at 2:09 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 45% · Market 50%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +6.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
45.0%
VS
MARKET
50.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+56
PUBLISHED
May 25, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 31, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events
  1. May 20, 2:09 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 45% vs market 50% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 21, 4:07 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 47%

  3. May 25, 12:08 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 44%

  4. May 31, 4:30 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +100% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
50.0%

The market was pricing this event at 50.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
45.0%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸AAA’s latest verified reading is just below the $4.60 trigger and trending upward
  • ▸With no major shocks, modest further gains are plausible but not favored by fundamentals
FACTORS FOR
  • +AAA national average already very close to $4.60 threshold
  • +Recent trend shows sustained week‑over‑week price increases
  • +Seasonal demand around Memorial Day supports near‑term strength
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Fundamental analysis suggests limited upside without new supply shock
  • −News and social estimates point to lower likelihood of spike
  • −Only ten days remain for move to exceed strict threshold
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Existing upward trend continues, nudging AAA average just above $4.6030%
Short‑lived late‑May disruption briefly pushes AAA average over $4.6014%
Evidence 54%
SOURCES (2)
last week
  • U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov

    U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices.

    May 19Open →
  • U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov

    U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail ...

    May 19Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 5.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.194
MARKET ACCURACY
0.250
EDGE
+56.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60?, classifying it as overpriced at 50.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 45.0% vs market 50.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.167-fresh-source-hygiene·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: May 31, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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