Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 24, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

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Forecast Tape

2 events

May 20, 10:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 84% vs market 79% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 24, 6:11 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +27% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

78.5%

The market was pricing this event at 78.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

84.0%

EDGE DETECTED

5.5pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a high likelihood the limited ceasefire persists through the window
▸Strict strike and confirmation criteria materially reduce pathways to a NO outcome

FACTORS FOR

+Recent reporting shows ongoing de-escalation and no U.S. strikes.
+Iranian leadership publicly signals deterrence posture, not escalation.
+High political and regional costs to renewed U.S.-Iran direct conflict.
+Strike must be U.S.-launched and on Iranian soil to count.

FACTORS AGAINST

−Ceasefire described as fragile with ongoing regional violence.
−U.S. leadership rhetoric emphasizes readiness for renewed hostilities.

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

No U.S. aerial, drone, or missile strike hits Iranian territory80%

Any incident lacks confirmation as qualifying U.S. strike within one day4%

Evidence 55%Cluster: us-iran

SOURCES (4)

last day

Iran ceasefire continues through...? Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
The current frontrunner for "Iran ceasefire continues through...?" is "May 20" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest ...
May 20Open →
Iran Israel US War LIVE Updates: Hormuz पर भीषण जंग ...youtube.com
Iran Israel US War LIVE Updates: Hormuz पर भीषण जंग! | Ceasefire | Trump Vs Mojtaba | 20 May 2026 Iran-US Conflict: मिडिल ईस्ट में जारी तनाव के बीच डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने ईरान को बेहद ...
May 20Open →
Iran-US war latest: Tehran threatens 'more surprises' as ...independent.co.uk
“A comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency, resuming hostilities is even more inadvisable and maintaining negotiations is particularly important,” Xi told ...
May 20Open →
Iran Update Special Report, May 19, 2026understandingwar.org
The United States continues to pressure Iran economically through its naval blockade and sanctions, which impose costs on Iran's economy.
May 19Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 5.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.026

MARKET ACCURACY

0.046

EDGE

+20.6

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?, classifying it as underpriced at 78.5%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 84.0% vs market 78.5%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.132-resolution-aware-repair·Forecasted: May 20, 2026·Resolved: May 24, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.