Will average **gas prices** be above $4.70? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 31, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events

May 24, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 17% vs market 22% — NONE FAIR
May 26, 12:09 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 31%
May 31, 4:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

22.0%

The market was pricing this event at 22.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

31.0%

EDGE DETECTED

9.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸AAA’s latest national average is below $4.70 but trending modestly upward into Memorial Day
▸Limited time and recent small moves constrain odds of crossing and holding above threshold

FACTORS FOR

+AAA national average already relatively close to $4.70 threshold
+Recent week-over-week price increase into peak travel period

FACTORS AGAINST

−Need over 13 cents more nationwide in very few days
−No major new supply shocks or demand surges reported

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Continued small daily increases push AAA average just above $4.7020%

Short-lived crude or refining disruption causes sharp late-May price jump11%

Evidence 47%

SOURCES (2)

last week

Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Reach Four-Year Highsgasprices.aaa.com
The national average for a gallon of regular is at $4.56, up 3 cents over last week and $1.38 higher than this time last year. Current prices are close to what ...
May 21Open →
U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)eia.gov
U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail ...
May 19Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 9.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.096

MARKET ACCURACY

0.048

EDGE

-47.7

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will average **gas prices** be above $4.70?, classifying it as underpriced at 22.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 31.0% vs market 22.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.176-actionable-slot-priority·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: May 31, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.