What happened
This market resolved NO on June 3, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 13, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 83% vs market 83% — NONE FAIR
- May 21, 5:21 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 72%
- May 21, 5:21 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 83% → 77% (-6pp)
- Jun 3, 12:00 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +326% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 76.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 77%
- ▸A tight race with a small polling edge and efficient, high-volume market suggests Chong is a modest but real favorite
- +Recent Metrix poll shows Chong slightly ahead of Oh
- +Media characterize race as tight but competitive for opposition
- −Incumbency advantage for Oh Se-hoon
- −Single recent poll within margin of error, many undecided
- Campaign officially begins for June 3 elections with 7,800 candidateskoreatimes.co.kr
According to the National Election Commission, as of Wednesday, 7,829 people registered as candidates, of whom 7,820 remain in the race. Voters will elect 16 ...
May 20Open → - Jung Won-oh Launches Campaign, Predicts Tight Seoul Mayoral ...en.sedaily.com
Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate Jung Won-oh launched his official campaign at the East Seoul Mail Center, predicting a tight race against People ...
May 20Open → - Official campaigning for June 3 local elections beginskoreajoongangdaily.joins.com
Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate Chong Won-o experiences delivery work at the East Seoul Mail Center in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, after official ...
May 21Open → - Jung Chung-rae kicks off campaign in Seoul, courts Chungcheong ...biz.chosun.com
Jung Chung-rae of the Democratic Party of Korea visited Seoul's Dongjak District on the morning of the 21st, when the official campaign kicked off, ...
May 21Open → - On the 21st, when the campaign for the June 3 local elections and ...mk.co.kr
Starting with Seoul, Chung Chung-rae will visit Seongnam in Gyeonggi Province, Gongju in South Chungcheong Province, Daejeon and Cheonan in order to carry out ...
May 21Open → - Jung at Post Center, Oh at Garak Market... Seoul Mayor Candidates ...asiae.co.kr
As the official campaign period for the 9th nationwide local elections began at midnight on the 21st, both the ruling and opposition party candidates.
May 21Open → - Campaign officially begins for June 3 elections with 7,800 candidateskoreatimes.co.kr
Ruling, opposition blocs enter 2-week race amid tightening polls in key cities. Chong Won-o, ...
May 20Open → - Fact check debunks Chong Won-o claim of zero Seongdong ...biz.chosun.com
On the 19th, Democratic Party of Korea Seoul mayoral candidate Chong Won-o said at the third election committee meeting that "for the past five years ...
May 20Open → - Jung at Post Center, Oh at Garak Market... Seoul Mayor Candidates ...asiae.co.kr
As the official campaign period for the 9th nationwide local elections began at midnight on the 21st, both the ruling and opposition party candidates.
May 21Open → - Jung Wono Kicks Off Campaign at Dong Seoul Post Centerasiae.co.kr
Sorting Parcels with Representative Chung Cheongrae. Jung Wono, the Democratic Party's candidate for Seoul mayor, began his 13-day election journey at the Dong ...
May 20Open → - Rival parties gear up for official campaigns set to begin Thursdaykoreajoongangdaily.joins.com
The ruling Democratic Party (DP) and the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) geared up Wednesday for the June 3 local elections and parliamentary ...
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 5.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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