1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 30, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 12, 4:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 52% vs market 62% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 30, 3:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
62.0%
The market was pricing this event at 62.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
52.0%
EDGE DETECTED
8.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
16.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
4.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Current DHS shutdown irrelevant to Feb 2026 resolution window requirement
- ▸Market severely overpricing based on current events confusion
FACTORS FOR
- +Political polarization increasing shutdown frequency
- +Historical precedent of extended partisan standoffs
FACTORS AGAINST
- −75+ day threshold historically unprecedented
- −Feb 2026 timeframe lacks current crisis drivers
- −Current DHS shutdown unrelated to resolution period
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Current DHS shutdown continues through late April45%
New broader government shutdown starts before year-end15%
DHS shutdown extends plus additional agency lapses8%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 10.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.230
MARKET ACCURACY
0.144
EDGE
-86.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the US government be shut down for at least 75 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 62.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 52.0% vs market 62.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 4.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.6·Forecasted: April 12, 2026·Resolved: April 30, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.