What happened
This market resolved NO on May 26, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 21, 4:57 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 49% vs market 43% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 22, 4:09 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 57%
- May 22, 4:09 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 43% → 54% (+11pp)
- May 26, 1:28 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 43.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Estimated probability: 57% that no qualifying U.S
- ▸kinetic strike on Iranian soil occurs before the deadline
- ▸Narrow resolution criteria and ongoing de-escalation talks slightly favor continuation of the ceasefire
- +Talks reportedly ‘very close’ to agreement reduce incentive for escalation
- +Resolution only triggers on U.S.-launched aerial bombs, drones, or missiles on Iran
- +Lower-level or proxy clashes do not break this market’s ceasefire definition
- +Domestic U.S. politics currently disfavor large, overt Iran escalation
- −Talks still described as too early to judge final agreement
- −Regional volatility raises tail risk of sudden escalatory strike
- −No formal, published long-term ceasefire framework is confirmed
- −U.S. leaders have preserved operational flexibility for strikes if provoked
- Iran confirms receiving new ceasefire proposals from US | Geo ...youtube.com
Iran confirms receiving new ceasefire proposals from US | Geo News 12 AM Geo Bulletin | 22 May 2026. 8.4K views · 12 hours ago.
May 21Open → - Iran-US Talks | Trump Confirms Final Ceasefire Deal After ...youtube.com
Iran-US Talks | Trump Confirms Final Ceasefire Deal After Pakistan's Big Move! Iran Shock Return #Iran #USA #IranUSWar #MohsinNaqvi #Tehran #China #UAE ...
May 21Open → - Rubio says progress made in Iran talks but warns Trump has ...youtube.com
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there are signs of progress in efforts to secure a deal with Iran but warns major challenges remain, ...
May 21Open → - Has Trump been defeated by Iran? | ABC News Daily podcastyoutube.com
It's almost three months since Donald Trump began the Iran war, but is there any chance that America can achieve anything that looks like victory?
May 22Open → - Dan Hoffman on Iran's economic squeeze, sanctions ...foxnews.com
Former CIA Station Chief Dan Hoffman analyzes Iran's use of ceasefire to rearm, its economic squeeze from US blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and the ...
May 22Open → - Headlines for May 22, 2026democracynow.org
Republican leaders in the House of Representatives called off a vote Thursday on a war powers resolution seeking to end President Trump's ability to strike Iran ...
May 22Open → - Iran US Talks - Field Marshal Asim Munir Official Visit to Iran ...youtube.com
Iran US Talks - Field Marshal Asim Munir Official Visit to Iran| ARY News 6PM Headlines | 22 May 26. 1K views · 25 minutes ago.
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 5.9% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTS