What happened
This market resolved YES on June 22, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
11 events- Apr 26, 8:12 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 43% vs market 47% — NONE FAIR
- May 4, 10:12 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 47% → 41% (-6pp)
- May 13, 8:03 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 41% → 35% (-6pp)
- May 14, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 35% → 44% (+9pp)
- May 14, 6:03 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 23%
- May 14, 6:03 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 44% → 34% (-10pp)
- May 15, 8:02 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 24%
- May 15, 8:02 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 34% → 26% (-8pp)
- May 17, 2:05 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 26% → 65% (+39pp)
- May 18, 10:05 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 65% → 51% (-14pp)
- Jun 22, 10:40 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 33.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates the market slightly overprices Starmer exiting by June 30, 2026 at 50.5%
- ▸Stable majority and no credible leadership moves reduce near‑term exit odds
- +Any resignation/removal announcement before deadline triggers YES immediately
- +UK politics can shift quickly with scandals or shocks
- −Large Labour majority and no credible challenge reported
- −Relatively early in parliamentary term, lowering exit base rate
- Wes Streeting Challenges Keir Starmer for Labour Leadership Amid ...kucoin.com
Market Snapshot The “Wes Streeting Resignation” market is currently inactive with zero volume, but Streeting's leadership challenge has potential for ...
May 18Open → - UK Labour turmoil fuels speculation of Starmer exit by June 2026cryptobriefing.com
UK Labour Party faces turmoil as speculation grows over Starmer's exit. Starmer out by June 30, 2026 at 68% YES.
May 18Open → - could Polymarket influence an election? - The Nervethenerve.news
A platform backed by Peter Thiel and advised by Donald Trump Jr. is taking anonymous crypto bets on UK elections, missile strikes and the death of world ...
May 18Open → - Daily Prediction Markets Report - May 17, 2026 - WIN DAILY®windailysports.com
Hottest Market Right Now. 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner. Championship Market | Volume: $8.0M. Bettor's Take: Multi-outcome championship with 17.8% on the ...
May 17Open → - Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
has traded on "Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?" as of May 17, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
May 17Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 10.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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