1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 3, 6:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 96% vs market 81% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +24% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
80.5%
The market was pricing this event at 80.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
96.4%
EDGE DETECTED
16.6pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
HIGH
Kelly Reference
72.9%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸ETH trades at $2,050.45 with only $10.46 buffer above $2,039.99 threshold for 5pm resolution
- ▸Market underprices near-term volatility risk given minimal safety margin
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price above threshold
- +Recent upward trend +3.75% weekly
- +Technical support levels intact
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Minimal $10.46 buffer vulnerable to volatility
- −3 hours remaining for potential decline
- −CF Benchmarks may differ from spot
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 15.8% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.001
MARKET ACCURACY
0.038
EDGE
+36.7
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 80.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 96.4% vs market 80.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 3, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.