1
What happened
This market resolved NO on June 7, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 6:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 10% vs market 34% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Jun 7, 12:00 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +50% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
33.5%
The market was pricing this event at 33.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
9.9%
EDGE DETECTED
16.0pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
63.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸López Aliaga leads fragmented 35-candidate field but polls show statistical tie with Fujimori amid 40% undecided voters
- ▸Market slightly overprices his chances given vote-splitting dynamics and lack of clear polling advantage
FACTORS FOR
- +Current polling leader at 11.7%
- +Strong Lima mayoral base
- +Conservative crime/economy message resonates
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Tied with Fujimori in recent polls
- −Fragmented field enables vote splitting
- −40% voters still undecided
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 23.6% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.010
MARKET ACCURACY
0.112
EDGE
+102.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?, classifying it as overpriced at 33.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 9.9% vs market 33.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: June 7, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.