1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 14, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 11, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 76% vs market 85% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 14, 9:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
84.5%
The market was pricing this event at 84.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
76.0%
EDGE DETECTED
6.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
10.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
2.5%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Trust Me holds #1 position but faces competition from April 13 documentary releases
- ▸Complete absence of social buzz contradicts market's 84.5% confidence level
FACTORS FOR
- +Currently #1 on Netflix Top 10
- +Only 2 days old, fresh momentum
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Multiple April 13 documentary releases
- −Zero social media discussion or buzz
- −Big Mistakes climbing at #4
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Trust Me maintains #1 through April 1360%
April 13 documentary releases overtake current leader10%
Big Mistakes or other current show climbs to #15%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 8.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.058
MARKET ACCURACY
0.024
EDGE
-33.5
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Top US Netflix Show on Apr 13, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 84.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 76.0% vs market 84.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 2.5% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSPRISM: v0.7.6·Forecasted: April 11, 2026·Resolved: April 14, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.