LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 17, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events

May 17, 10:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 61% vs market 45% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
May 17, 2:33 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +125% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

44.5%

The market was pricing this event at 44.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

61.0%

EDGE DETECTED

10.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates JD Gaming is a modest favorite in this BO3
▸Slight historical and roster-strength edges outweigh neutral recent news and sentiment for Invictus Gaming

FACTORS FOR

+Recent context and analysis slightly favor JD Gaming over Invictus
+Favored teams win BO3 series at elevated historical rates

FACTORS AGAINST

−Some historical head-to-head indications lean toward Invictus Gaming
−No verified recent dominance or official standings edge for JD Gaming

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Match plays normally and JD Gaming win the BO3 on rift59%

Match starts, Invictus forfeits or is disqualified mid-series, JDG awarded win2%

Evidence 49%

SOURCES (14)

last day

LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend ...polymarket.com
In the upcoming match between JD Gaming and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend ... JD Gaming wins 2 or more games than Invictus Gaming in this match.
May 17Open →
JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming | GameClubgameclub.com
Match Information This market is based on the League of Legends match between JD Gaming and Invictus Gaming in LPL Group Ascend, scheduled for 2026-05-17.
May 16Open →
JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - LPL: Split 2 2026 - My Stream Agendamystreamagenda.com
Upcoming League of Legends LoLGroup Ascend. JD GamingJDG. VS. Best of 3. Invictus GamingIG. Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 AM. LPL. Starts in. 08hours.
May 17Open →
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - Polymarketpolymarket.com
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend (Resolved): View final results and past odds on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
May 16Open →
JD Gaming lwn Invictus Gaming di LPL 2026 Split 2 - BO3.ggbo3.gg
Ramalan dan Analisis Perlawanan JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - LPL 2026 Split 2 Kumpulan Ascend.
May 16Open →
Ninjas in Pyjamas Achieve 7 Wins, ThunderTalk Gaming Rises to ...bo3.gg
At the LPL 2026 Split 2, two group stage matches have concluded. ThunderTalk Gaming defeated EDward Gaming with a score of 2:1, improving to a 3-2 record in ...
May 16Open →
Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend | LPL: Split 2 2026 - MSA Esportsmystreamagenda.com
Upcoming League of Legends LoLGroup Ascend. Bilibili GamingBLG. VS. Best of 3. Anyone's LegendAL. Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 04:00 AM. LPL. Starts in. 10hours.
May 17Open →
JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming на LPL 2026 Split 2 - BO3.ggbo3.gg
Полный обзор матча JD Gaming против Invictus Gaming - LPL 2026 Split 2 - Live. Актуальная статистика и аналитика League of Legends матчей на сайте bo3.gg!
May 16Open →
G2 Esports Defeats Karmine Corp to Qualify for Esports World Cup ...bo3.gg
The first game ended with a score of 23:10, in the second G2 Esports won 18:14, and on the third map, they dominated with a 27:6 victory. This win secured the ...
May 16Open →
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Polymarketpolymarket.com
... vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend · LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonLoL ...
May 16Open →
JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming na LPL 2026 Split 2 - BO3.ggbo3.gg
JD Gaming ; Weibo Gaming. JD Gaming. 2 ; JD Gaming. Anyone's Legend. 2 ; JD Gaming. Bilibili Gaming. 0 ; Top Esports. JD Gaming. 1 ; Team WE. JD Gaming. 1.
May 16Open →
Shopify Rebellion End Five-Match Losing Streak After Win Over ...bo3.gg
Shopify Rebellion defeated Disguised 2:0, winning the first map 22-11 in 29 minutes and 58 seconds and closing the series on the second map with a 23-12 ...
May 17Open →
T1 Defeats Gen.G Esports, Achieves 10 Wins in LCK 2026 Seasonbo3.gg
At the LCK 2026 Season, two matches of Rounds 1-2 have concluded. T1 defeated Gen.G Esports with a score of 2:1, tying with their opponent in terms of ...
May 16Open →
FURIA vs LOUD at CBLOL Split 1 2026 - BO3.ggbo3.gg
JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming Match Prediction and Analysis - LPL ...
May 17Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 16.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.152

MARKET ACCURACY

0.308

EDGE

+155.9

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend, classifying it as underpriced at 44.5%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 61.0% vs market 44.5%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS

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PRISM: v0.9.125-fast-ledger-floor·Forecasted: May 17, 2026·Resolved: May 17, 2026·polymarket

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.