What happened
This market resolved YES on May 23, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 22, 2:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 57% vs market 50% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 22, 8:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 62%
- May 22, 8:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 50% → 67% (+17pp)
- May 23, 12:00 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 50.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 2%
- ▸The only scheduled Flight 12 attempt occurs after the market’s resolution time, leaving virtually no viable path to YES
- +Flight 12 is clearly scheduled and technically readying
- +FAA data delays could, in theory, complicate timing
- −No launch occurred by resolution morning after May 21 scrub
- −Next 90-minute window starts well after contract resolution time
- −FAA, not announcements or streams, controls resolution verification
- −No time remains to schedule and execute an earlier attempt
- SpaceX Starship Flight 12 live launch updatesspace.com
SpaceX is now targeting a Friday, May 22, launch for its newest Starship design, the Starship V3 megarocket after a launch scrub. See our latest updates here.
May 22Open → - SpaceX scrubs first launch attempt of its Starship Version 3 rocketspaceflightnow.com
Liftoff is scheduled during a launch window that opens at 5:30 p.m. CDT (6:30 p.m. EDT / 2230 UTC) on Friday, May 22, if all goes well with the overnight ...
May 21Open → - Starship V3 Launch Schedule - RocketLaunch.orgrocketlaunch.org
All Scheduled Launches SpaceX Starship V3. Next Launch. Starship ... Flight 12 - Pad 2 - Starbase, Texas - May 21, 2026. Last Update: Next attempt NET May 22.
May 22Open → - SpaceX will launch its 1st-ever Starship V3 megarocket on May 21 ...space.com
The Starship launch is scheduled to take place today (May 21) from SpaceX's Starbase test site in South Texas, during a 90-minute window that opens at 6:30 p.m. ...
May 21Open → - Watch Live: SpaceX Starship launches on 12th test flight - YouTubeyoutube.com
... scheduled during a launch window that opens at 5:30 p.m. CDT / 6:30 p.m. EDT / 2230 UTC on Thursday, May 21. The mission will see splashdowns of the Super ...
May 22Open → - Starship Test Flight 12 - Pad 2 - Starbase, Texas - May 21, 2026youtube.com
Launch Date: May 21, 2026 (CDT) Launch Time: 6:30 p.m. CDT, 7:30 p.m. EDT, 2330 UTC (May 22, 01:30 CEST) Launch Window: Open until 7:00 p.m. CDT Status: The ...
May 22Open → - South Padre Island, United States, May 22, 2026 (AFP) - NAMPAnampa.org
Elon Musk's SpaceX postponed the highly anticipated launch of its upgraded Starship megarocket, calling off Thursday's test after multiple countdown ...
May 22Open → - FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) resolution contextkalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com
Source: FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Resolution field: SpaceX launches Starship flight test number N before deadline. Outcome verified from FAA. Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/SPACEX.pdf Known rule risks: $1.27M+ volume — massive tech/space speculation market; FAA is the SOLE resolution source — NOT SpaceX announcements, NOT live streams; FAA data delay clause: if FAA data is delayed, market expiry shifts per Kalshi Rule 6.3b
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 7.1% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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