1
What happened
This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 12:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 14% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 1, 6:39 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +16% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
14.0%
The market was pricing this event at 14.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.8pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
81.4%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Saudi Arabia has absorbed over 5,000 Iranian strikes since February 2026 without direct retaliation, showing diplomatic restraint
- ▸Historical pattern suggests continued de-escalation preference despite escalating rhetoric
FACTORS FOR
- +Escalating Iranian strikes on Saudi territory
- +Crown Prince vowed military response March 2026
- +US backing for potential Saudi action
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No retaliation despite months of Iranian attacks
- −Diplomatic channels still functioning
- −Saudi preference for US-led response
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 13.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.020
EDGE
+19.5
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?, classifying it as overpriced at 14.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 14.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.