Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30699.9900 at the end of May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 29, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

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Forecast Tape

4 events

May 24, 6:11 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 46% vs market 46% — NONE FAIR
May 25, 8:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 84%
May 25, 8:07 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 46% → 15% (-31pp)
May 29, 11:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

15.0%

The market was pricing this event at 15.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

84.0%

EDGE DETECTED

10.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a high likelihood the Nasdaq-100 remains above 30,699.99 by late May 2026
▸Current level, structural growth drivers, and sentiment outweigh medium-term macro and valuation risks

FACTORS FOR

+Index is already modestly below the 30,699.99 threshold with rising trend.
+Secular AI and tech earnings growth support continued index strength.
+Two-year forward horizons historically favor upside for major equity indices.
+Social and news-based estimate also indicates strong upside probability.

FACTORS AGAINST

−Substantial uncertainty around future Fed policy and inflation path.
−Risk of earnings slowdown or recession-driven equity drawdown before 2026.
−Valuation compression from currently elevated tech multiples is possible.

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Index grinds higher on AI-led earnings and stable macro45%

Choppy market yet closes modestly above current level23%

Drawdown from macro shock then recovery above 30,699.9910%

Strong bull market lifts index well beyond threshold6%

Evidence 61%

SOURCES (2)

last week

US: Michelle Bowman Speaks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Factors to watch include growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the ...
May 23Open →
FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — NASDAQ-100 INDEX (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: Nasdaq-100 Index Latest Value: 29,481.64 (as of 2026-05-22) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +124.37 (+0.42%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-18: 28,994.37 2026-05-19: 28,818.84 2026-05-20: 29,297.70 2026-05-21: 29,357.27 2026-05-22: 29,481.64 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: 100.00 points Current value: 29,481.64 Distance to target: 29,381.64 ABOVE target (29381.6% above) Direction required: Val
May 25Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 69.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.706

MARKET ACCURACY

0.022

EDGE

-683.1

Brier edge

The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30699.9900 at the end of May 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 15.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 84.0% vs market 15.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.167-fresh-source-hygiene·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: May 29, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.