What happened
This market resolved YES on June 30, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- Apr 26, 8:12 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 39% vs market 45% — NONE FAIR
- May 3, 6:05 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 45% → 69% (+24pp)
- May 18, 8:06 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 37%
- Jun 30, 12:00 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 73.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a roughly one‑in‑three chance Anthropic tops the specified leaderboard
- ▸Multiple strong competitors and uncertain eval dynamics materially cap upside despite positive development signals
- +Anthropic reportedly accelerating next‑generation model with strong internal gains.
- +Leaderboard uses head‑to‑head arena, favoring popular generalist assistants.
- −OpenAI, Meta, and Google planning major models before mid‑2026.
- −Leaderboard outcome highly path‑dependent with limited historical predictability.
- Claude AI Stats May 2026 – Market Share, Total Users, and More.fatjoe.com
Claude jumped from under 2% of U.S. mobile chatbot DAU share in December to 10% in March – a 167% month-on-month surge that Apptopia called “a step function, ...
May 18Open → - AI News Today - May 18, 2026: 13 Biggest Storiesbuildfastwithai.com
Alongside that, Anthropic's $30B funding round at a $900B valuation is tracking to close by end of May 2026. What will Google announce at I/O 2026? Google has ...
May 17Open → - Which company has best AI model end of June? - Perplexityperplexity.ai
Anthropic dominates this market at 73.6% — consistent with its leaderboard supremacy reflected in the parallel "best Math AI model" market (78%) and WSJ's ...
May 20Open → - 8 Ways to Use AI in Marketing, According to Anthropic's Austin Lauchiefmarketer.com
According to HubSpot's 2026 State of Marketing Report, 80% of marketers already use AI for content creation, while 86% of marketing teams use AI in at least ...
May 16Open → - SpaceX Unveils Landmark $45 Billion AI Compute Deal with ...tesery.com
The agreement includes a carefully planned ramp-up phase scheduled for May and June of 2026, during which Anthropic will benefit from an initial discounted rate ...
May 21Open → - Unable to Deploy Claude Model in my Azure Foundry - Microsoft Q&Alearn.microsoft.com
Hello,. I am trying t deploy Anthropic Claude model in my Azure Foundry, in US East 2 location and end up getting attached error.
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 36.1% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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