1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 8, 5:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 6% vs market 17% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +20% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
17.0%
The market was pricing this event at 17.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
5.7%
EDGE DETECTED
9.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
66.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Bitcoin at $71,582 needs 2% gain to breach $73,000 threshold by 5PM EDT settlement
- ▸Technical indicators show bearish momentum with price below key moving averages
FACTORS FOR
- +Only 2% price appreciation needed
- +Crypto volatility allows quick moves
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Bearish technical setup below moving averages
- −Descending channel pattern intact
- −CF Benchmarks may differ from spot prices
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Price stays above $73,000 through 5PM settlement8%
Intraday volatility pushes above threshold before close5%
Technical breakout above resistance drives sustained rally2%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 11.3% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.003
MARKET ACCURACY
0.029
EDGE
+25.7
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 17.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 5.7% vs market 17.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 8, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.