1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 22, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 17, 4:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 76% vs market 85% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 22, 7:44 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +545% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
84.5%
The market was pricing this event at 84.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
76.0%
EDGE DETECTED
8.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
10.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
2.5%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Pakistani mediators report progress but both US and Iran explicitly denied formal extension commitments
- ▸Market appears overpricing mediation optimism versus bilateral confirmation requirements
FACTORS FOR
- +Pakistani army chief securing productive discussions
- +Trump optimism on Iran proposals
- +Second round talks planned before expiry
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Both sides denied formal extension April 16
- −Nuclear weapons remain sticking point
- −Ceasefire violations ongoing both sides
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Joint US-Iran official statement confirming extension45%
Overwhelming media reporting of reached agreement20%
Comprehensive peace agreement including ceasefire extension10%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 8.5% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.578
MARKET ACCURACY
0.714
EDGE
+136.3
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 84.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 76.0% vs market 84.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 2.5% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 17, 2026·Resolved: April 22, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.