What happened
This market resolved YES on June 1, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
8 events- May 16, 10:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 74% vs market 52% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 16, 8:06 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 54%
- May 16, 8:06 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 52% → 45% (-7pp)
- May 17, 4:04 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 79%
- May 17, 10:05 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 50%
- May 17, 6:08 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 61%
- May 20, 12:08 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 50%
- Jun 1, 3:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 52.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸CAVA’s official Q1 2026 report already states 459 restaurants, above the 457 threshold
- ▸With the decisive resolution source fixed, the contract is overwhelmingly likely to resolve YES
- +Official Q1 2026 press release reports 459 total restaurants
- +Kalshi rules use that exact reported Q1 2026 count
- +Multiple financial data providers corroborate the 459 figure
- +Historical growth trend supports plausibility of this level
- −Residual operational or reporting revision risk before final settlement
- −Small possibility of resolution-criteria or data-interpretation dispute
- CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Results - Business Wirebusinesswire.com
Net New CAVA Restaurant Openings of 20, bringing total CAVA Restaurants to 459, a 20.2% increase in total CAVA Restaurants year over year. Same Restaurant Sales ...
May 19Open → - CAVA jumps 4.4% as Q1 results show accelerating comps and ...quiverquant.com
CAVA opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, maintaining a rapid development pace that can lift forward revenue expectations if unit economics hold.
May 19Open → - CAVA Group reports Q1 2026 revenue up 32.2% to $434.4M, net ...tradingview.com
The company opened 20 net new restaurants in the quarter, bringing the total to 459 locations. Financial Highlights. Revenue: $434.4 million for the sixteen ...
May 19Open → - CAVA (NYSE:CAVA) Surprises With Strong Q1 CY2026, Stock Soarsstockstory.org
CAVA operated 459 locations in the latest quarter. It has opened new restaurants at a rapid clip over the last two years, averaging 18.4% annual growth, much ...
May 19Open → - CAVA restaurants in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If CAVA Group Inc. reports above 456 cava restaurants in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Fiscal.ai. Note: this event is ...
May 16Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 22.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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