1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 8, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 23% vs market 30% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 10, 1:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +43% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
30.0%
The market was pricing this event at 30.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
23.1%
EDGE DETECTED
6.3pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
HIGH
Kelly Reference
22.9%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸March 2026 CPI increase above 0.9% requires threefold acceleration from recent 0.2-0.3% monthly pattern
- ▸Market overprices tail risk without fundamental justification for dramatic inflation spike
FACTORS FOR
- +Potential Iran conflict inflation impact
- +Government shutdown data collection disruptions
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Recent CPI increases stable at 0.2-0.3% monthly
- −Year-over-year inflation steady at 2.4%
- −No precedent for 0.9% monthly jump in recent data
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Major energy price spike from geopolitical events12%
Severe supply chain disruption causing broad price increases6%
Statistical anomaly or data collection error4%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 6.9% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.053
MARKET ACCURACY
0.090
EDGE
+36.5
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in March 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 30.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 23.1% vs market 30.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 8, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.